An Opening for Campaign Finance Reform?

November 30, 2012

The Economist: "If, as the the saying goes, 'a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged by reality', then perhaps an advocate of stricter campaign-finance laws is a newly elected congressman or senator who has weathered months of negative ads funded by third-party groups freed from spending limits or disclosure requirements. That, at least, is the hope of many both inside and outside Congress."

Source: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/30/an_opening_for_campaign_finance_reform.html

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Bulk Investors And The Real-Estate 'Recovery' | ZeroHedge

Via Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog,

Bulk (Wall Street) buyers have been receiving a lot of attention recently. It's time to take a closer look.

There is little data available pertaining to bulk investors and even less meaningful analysis. Historically, Wall Street has never been active in direct ownership of single family homes, so there is no past histrory to learn from. We need to start from scratch.

How big are these bulk buyers? A few months ago, I read a report that Keefe, Bruyette & Woods estimated Wall Street had raised $6 billion to $8 billion so far, which is really a paltry sum in the world of high finance. It is impossible to estimate how much small investors are adding to this investment pool. We also have no clue how much this pool may grow over time, or whether it will? soon be exhausted and shrink instead.

Investors typically buy lower end properties. Say at an average of $100,000 per unit, the $6 billion to $8 billion raised so far would not even amount to 100,000 homes.

On the national level, and using the most recent releases, Existing Homes Sales and New Homes Sales combined are coming in at a pace of just over 5 million for 2012. The median price is $178,000 for existing homes and $242,000 for new homes. 100,000 homes would not even show up on the radar.

As for foreclosures, there are 5.6 million total non current loans in various stages of default. The current estimate for under water mortgages still exceeds 10 million, or about 20% of all mortgages. The Wall Street bulk investors are unlikely to put a dent in the distress property arena for the foreseeable future. In comparison, when the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) was dissolved back in 1992 due to the sunset clause, investors cleaned the entire inventory of REOs and loans off the books with just a few auctions.

On the localized level, it is a slightly different story. I am going to use three Western metro areas as examples. Phoenix, Southern California and Las Vegas were hotbeds of the subprime bubble and are once again the most sought after areas, this time by bulk investors. Using September data from DQNews, investors purchased 38.6%, 27.3% and 48.5% of all sales respectively. The actual number of absentee buyers for the four areas totaled 9,885 for the month of September. I expect this number will grow for the current months and into the near future, as investors eagerly place their funds. There is no data that separates absentee buyers into specific classes, such as Wall Street funds, local syndicates or small investors. However, if the bulk buyers are actively accumulating in these select markets, it is safe to assume that they do have some influence. The question is for how long.

Of the aforementioned metro areas, Las Vegas is the most out of whack. There were 4,570 sales in October.? 50.2% were sold to absentee owners, 52.5% in cash (43.2% were short sales, 16.7% were REOs) and 36.1% FHA financed. I have never seen a market where over half of the buyers paid cash and over 1/3 of the sales were financed via the FHA, leaving only 14% of sales in the "other" category.

In just the months of September and October, Las Vegas sold 4,278 single family units to absentee owners.? Assuming a majority of them will show up as rentals soon, if they haven't already, how much more can the market absorb? If this trend continues, how many months will it take to swamp the desert with single family rentals?

Even more out of whack is the "it's cheaper to buy than rent" theory. I am not disputing the math but rather the conclusions.? Just the fact that it is cheaper to buy does not mean that renters should buy. Maybe housing is simply unaffordable and rents are way too high.? As the supply of rentals continues to increase, natural economic forces should be driving down rent and home prices. Furthermore, if renters are buying because it is cheaper than renting, won't there be even more pressure from this supply of rentals? Where are the additional 2,000 renters going to come from each month?

Finally, it is mind boggling that they are still building in this market. Here are some of the new homes for sale.? Just this website shows 100 communities on the market.

As an investor, why would I touch the Las Vegas market? Check out the popular websites such as craigslist or rentals.com. There are countless houses, condos and apartments for rent, all chasing after this phantom demand.? Cash investors have to ability to lower rents to the level that the market will bear, but can current investors compete? With so many renters, are neighborhoods going to deteriorate, driving even more under water mortgages into foreclosure?

I took a number of these rentals in Las Vegas and did a quick analysis on their return. It is impossible to come up with a reliable vacancy allowance. It is entirely possible for a bulk investor today to be sitting on a bulk of vacant houses tomorrow. While the option exists to lower rents, that can cause a chain reaction which may result in more foreclosures, more distress properties and a new round of depreciation in value.

Phoenix was probably the first region to experience an investor driven rebound. The most recent data from DQNews for September are already showing a sequential as well as a year over year decline. I am eagerly waiting to see what the October statistics will look like. Is that recovery already running out of steam?? The median price has been appreciating to $155,000 but it is still 41.3% below the all time peak of $264,100 in 2006. I am not suggesting that the subprime peak was reasonable, just that there is still a boatload of homeowners who have little or no equity in their homes.

Here in Southern California, the herd mentality is in full control with buying increasing at all levels. How long will this feeding frenzy last? Will the bulk investors be able to generate enough returns to whet their appetite for more? Will the local investors continue to ride on the coattails of the Wall Street moguls? Will owner occupiers continue to overpay for new homes because the 1%ers are paying cash and squeezing them out of the non-FHA market?

Stay tuned.

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Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-27/bulk-investors-and-real-estate-recovery

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Iraqi forces agree with Kurds to defuse tension

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi military leaders agreed on Monday with commanders from the Kurdistan region to defuse tension and discuss pulling their troops back from an area over which they both claim jurisdiction.

Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish region last week sent thousands of troops into the oil-rich territories along their contested internal border, raising the stakes in a long-running row over land and oil rights.

Military leaders from both sides met at the Ministry of Defence in Baghdad in the presence of a senior military officer from the United States on Monday.

A statement from the commander in chief of the Iraqi armed forces said the two sides had agreed to "start pacifying the situation and discuss a mechanism to return the forces which were deployed after the crisis to their previous positions".

A spokesman for the Kurdistan regional government said the Kurdish delegation would report back to the political leadership, which would decide what steps to take next.

The Iraqi army and Kurdish troops have previously come close to confrontation only to pull back at the last moment, flexing their muscles but lacking any real appetite for a fight.

Earlier on Monday, Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said dialogue was the only solution to the crisis, which had been brewing over the formation of a new command center for Iraqi forces to operate in the disputed areas.

The second military buildup this year illustrates how far relations between Baghdad's central government, led by Shi'ite Muslim Arabs, and ethnic Kurds have deteriorated, testing Iraq's federal cohesion nearly a year after U.S. troops left.

Washington intervened in August to help end a stand-off between Iraqi troops and Kurdish forces which came close to confrontation along their internal border in another disputed area near the Syrian frontier.

The latest flare-up began a week ago when Iraqi troops went after a fuel smuggler who had taken refuge in the office of a Kurdish political party in one of the disputed areas, igniting a clash with Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

(Reproting by Baghdad bureau; Writing by Isabel Coles; Editing by Alison Williams)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/iraqi-forces-agree-kurds-defuse-tension-172414702.html

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How about mental health professionals? | Mental Health Hub

Today the National Mental Health Commission released the World?s First National Report Card into Mental Health and Suicide Prevention. Professor Allan Fels, Chair of the National Mental Health Commission, announced that Australia can improve the lives of millions of Australians if the Prime Minister, Premiers and Chief Ministers ?through COAG ? reaffirm their commitment to mental health and have the courage to respond tenaciously to the first national report card into mental health and suicide prevention.

The first annual report highlighted:

• 900,000 Australians with a mental illness are missing out on the services they need
• mental illness is costing the economy $20 billion a year
• more than two thousand deaths from suicide in Australia each year and over 65,000 suicide attempts
• one in eight people discharged from a mental health service are left homeless
• half the Australian population will experience a mental illness at some time in their life and around 3.2 million adults a year have a mental health problem
• mental illness is costing the economy $20 billion a year
• a person with a mental illness will live 10 -32 years less than someone from the general population

The media is choosing to highlight that ??one third of those who get help via a hospital are there against their will and many are subject to physical restraint such as a locked door, straps or belts or sedation.? Professor Fels report is also seeking to ??minimise the use of seclusion and restraint?

As a mental health professional with 15 plus years of experience in senior clinical roles I can assure Professor Fels, the commission, the media, families and consumers of the mental health system that many numerous quality improvement activities, policies and procedures are already in place to protect individuals against improper use of seclusion and restraint. Personally I would be elated if I didn?t have to restrain or seclude another person ever again! A clinician?s stance is always the least restrictive environment. Always without exception!

What do we suggest a mental health professional does if someone is at risk of and threatening to assault staff or seriously injuring themselves or at risk of killing themselves? Measures like seclusion, chemical restraint and physical restraint are sparingly used at the moment and any additional restrictions will make the workplace even more dangerous than it already is. My colleagues in the emergency department are constantly professing ?there is no way I would do your job!? and asking ?How can you do this job?? and my response is simple, ?I enjoy doing what I do?.

Although I enjoy my job, I do not enjoy the violence! I can not count how many times I dodged a left hook or have had to restrain someone from wanting to leave the emergency department when at serious risk of personal misadventure. This is a?concerning part of?a mental health professionals working day. In the last week I have witnessed colleagues being kicked in the head, spat on, threatened with serious assault and I was threatened with death.

This is the environment that mental health professionals ply their trade and something needs to be done!

MENTAL HEALTH PROFESSIONALS AND CONSUMERS NEED MORE SUPPORT AND MORE RESOURCES!

?

NOTE FROM EDITOR: This post has been posted?anonymously?as the author has?requested not to be identified and?is currently an employee of the public mental health system. Mental Health Hub has been assured that the intent of the author is considering the view of all parties when discussing the treatment of individuals with mental illness.

Mental Health Hub is an online resource for Mental Health Professionals.?

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Source: http://www.mhhub.com/archives/25904

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Bounce house-related injuries on the rise in U.S

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - The number of U.S. children hurt while using inflatable bouncers, such as bounce houses and moonwalks, is 15 times higher than in 1995, according to a new study.

Researchers, who published their findings in the journal Pediatrics on Monday, said there are about five bounce house-related injuries per 100,000 U.S. children every year.

That's far less than the estimated 31 trampoline-related injuries per 100,000 U.S. children reported in 2009, but the study's lead author says the new findings should make people take notice.

"Groups should take a look at these data, help us get the word out and make sure parents are making informed decisions," said Dr. Gary Smith, director of the Center for Injury Research and Policy at Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio.

The number of kids being brought into emergency rooms (ERs) for the injuries increased from 702 in 1995 to 11,311 children in 2010.

Broken bones and sprains were the most common types of injuries with each accounting for about a quarter of the ER visits. Cuts, concussions and bruises made up the rest.

Smith suggested that parents limit the use of bouncers to children about 6 years old and older, limit the number of children using them at one time, and always have a parent present.

Until now, according to the researchers, there had only been one other study looking at bouncer-related injuries, and that only looked at broken bones in a small number of patients at one hospital.

For their new study, the researchers used information from a database of injuries related to consumer products that were treated at about 100 U.S. ERs between 1990 and 2010.

From that database, Smith and his colleagues were able to estimate that about 65,000 children and teens were treated for bouncer-related injuries during that time.

About a third were under five years old, half were between six and 12 years old, and the rest were between 13 and 17 years old.

They found that the rate grew toward the end of the study with the annual number of injured children more than doubling from 2008 to 2010.

The most likely explanation for the increase is more children using inflatable bouncers.

"We tried really hard to get those numbers," said Smith. "We generally got the feedback that the usage was going up but we couldn't get any firm numbers."

Dr. Tigran Avoian, the author of the previous study on bouncer-related broken bones, said it could also be attributed to other factors, such as better reporting by hospitals.

"I don't think it's related to an epidemic," said Avoian of the Los Angeles Orthopaedic Hospital, who was not involved in the new study.

In an email to Reuters Health, John Carr, of the American Inflatable Alliance, warns that the new study does not say how many children who use inflatable bouncers got injured.

He added that - by his calculations - children may use bouncers as many as 643 million times per year.

"When utilization is factored in, injury rates are actually quite small," he writes.

SIMILAR TO TRAMPOLINES

The researchers point out that -- aside from the frequency -- inflatable bouncer-related injuries were similar to previous findings on trampoline injuries.

Specifically, arm injuries decreased, while leg injuries increased, as children got older.

Also, the number of children needing to be hospitalized -- about 3 percent -- in the new study was about the same as for trampoline-related injuries.

Earlier this year, the American Academy of Pediatrics advised against the use of trampolines at homes and playgrounds. (see Reuters Health article of Sep. 24, 2012. http://reut.rs/OPn4z5)

But Smith told Reuters Health that a similar recommendation for bouncers is probably not wise.

"My personal philosophy is that we need to try to get children off the couch so that they are physically active and develop a healthy and active lifestyle, but understand any activity comes with risks... So the purpose was not to be an alarmist, but to make sure parents understand the risks," he said.

In his previous study, Avoian and his colleagues suggested that children playing in bouncers be supervised and broken into groups by size.

"They should know kids can get serious injuries, but it could be prevented," said Avoian.

SOURCE: http://bit.ly/HjQ8dI Pediatrics, online November 26, 2012.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/bounce-house-related-injuries-rise-u-051715580.html

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World stocks meander as US, Japan observe holiday

BANGKOK (AP) ? World stock markets saw little movement Friday amid holidays in the U.S. and Japan, although traders kept an eye on Americans hitting the stores for the start of the biggest shopping season of the year.

"It often provides a first glimpse at the strength of consumer spending in holiday season," Michael Carey of Credit Agricole CIB said in a market commentary. "Many industry analysts expect the gains to be centered in the consumer electronics sector."

The day is dubbed "Black Friday" because it falls on the day after Thanksgiving and is when U.S. retailers traditionally turn a profit as millions of Americans rush out to stores in search of gifts for Christmas and other celebrations.

European stocks were nearly unchanged in early trading. Britain's FTSE 100 edged marginally higher to 5,792.21. Germany's DAX was flat at 7,243.52. France's CAC-40 was less than 0.1 percent up at 3,498.48.

Wall Street prepared to open for a half-session after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. Dow Jones industrial futures rose 0.3 percent to 12,836 while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3 percent to 1,391.80.

In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.8 percent to 21,913.98 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.6 percent to 1,911.33. Benchmarks in Taiwan, mainland China and the Philippines also rose. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was nearly unchanged at 4,413. Benchmarks in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand fell.

A manufacturing survey that showed China's manufacturing grew for the first time in 13 months in November helped boost global stock markets on Thursday. The gains in Europe came despite a survey showing that the combined economy of the 17 countries that use the euro remains in recession.

Over recent weeks, the focus of attention has been on two main issues ? whether the White House can come to a deal with Congress on the budget and whether Greece will get its next batch of bailout cash.

Though a deal on either front has yet to be achieved, investors remain confident that their worst fears ? a U.S. recession and a Greek exit from the euro ? will be averted.

A U.S. budget deal is expected to be achieved to avoid automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the start of next year, while observers say Greece will likely get approval for the release of the money it needs to avoid bankruptcy at a meeting in Brussels on Monday.

"Should both events be concluded successfully, one can only assume we will be in for a good run into the end of the year and possibly get back to the levels we were trading in the lead up to the US presidential elections," said Stan Shamu of IG Markets in Melbourne.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 13 cents to $87.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 63 cents to finish at $87.38 a barrel on Wednesday.

In currencies, the euro rose to $1.2880 from $1.2825 late Wednesday in New York. The dollar fell to 82.14 yen from 82.49 yen.

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Follow Pamela Sampson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/pamelasampson

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/world-stocks-meander-us-japan-observe-holiday-085921084--finance.html

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